The Grand Old Partisan of Illinois

Friday, July 06, 2007

An early analysis of the 14 District GOP Primary

From Eric Krol, in today’s Daily Herald:

A Hastert retirement would set up a likely Republican primary pitting Oberweis against Aurora state Sen. Chris Lauzen. The two conservatives would battle it out for their party’s base of support

If that's what the field looks like heading into Februrary, my prediction is that Lauzen wins.

In the 2006 Republican primary, Kane County represented 58% of the total votes in the 14th District. Kendall represented 17%. Obviously those two counties, Kane in particular, are must wins for the nomination. Oberweis' poorest showing in Kane was in 2004 (29%, compared to 56% and 40% in ’02 and ’06, respectively) when the race included a State Senator from Kane (Rauschenberger). I think the same dynamic will play out in ’08, and Lauzen will beat Oberweis in Kane.

In Kendall, Lauzen already has a base (his district includes part of the county), while Oberweis has seen his number go down from 61% in ’02 to 42% and 37% in ’06 and ’04, respectively, even though no “favorite son” was in the picture in the later two cycles. Once again, I predict a Lauzen win in Kendall. Lauzen also won most of the western counties in the district when he ran for Comptroller in '98.

If Oberweis is willing to set his sights lower than Governor and U.S. Senator in order to get elected, maybe he should skip Congress and run for Lauzen's State Senate seat.


Also posted at Illinoize

4 Comments:

  • I am trying to get a conservative digg alternative going called GOP Hub (GOPHub.com). Anything you can do to help with this effort would be awesome. Plus feel free to submit any articles you write here on your blog :). Take care and have a great weekend!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7/7/07 2:12 PM  

  • Great analysis. You are spot on!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9/7/07 3:09 AM  

  • He was on the spot when he called Loozer, I mean Lauzen being chosen by Hastert.

    Lauzen is way to extreme for this district and he has crazy eyes.

    Hastert will still be able to raise some money for his candidate.

    Lauzen has no friend in Springfield.

    Reality check!

    By Blogger Milton, at 2/8/07 8:35 PM  

  • Here’s the ugly truth about McCain’s record:
    -IMMIGRATION: he wrote the bill granting amnesty to illegal immigrants (co-sponsored by Ted Kennedy)
    -SOCIAL SECURITY: he voted to give your social security money to illegal immigrants
    -TAXES: he voted against the Bush tax cuts multiple times (he has since flip-flopped and has campaigned as a lifelong tax-cutter)
    -RHETORIC: he routinely engages in Democratic class warfare against big companies in America, particularly the “evil” drug companies who research cures to debilitating diseases for a profit
    -ECONOMY: as recently as December 2007 he admitted “he does not know the economy very well” and needed to get better at it
    -1ST AMENDMENT: he wrote the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill that was declared to be an unconstitutional infringement of the 1st Amendment (co-sponsored by ultra-liberal Democrat Russ Feingold)
    -2ND AMENDMENT: he was called the “worst 2nd amendment candidate” by the president of the NRA
    -EQUAL PROTECTION: lifelong supporter of affirmative action
    -ENERGY TAX: wrote a bill imposing a massive tax on energy which, according to the Department of Energy, would drastically raise the price of gasoline and put 300,000 Americans out of work
    -GLOBAL WARMING: supports radical global warming legislation which involved him voting with every Democrat; think only America is responsible to take action, not other superpowers
    -JUDGES: he joined forces with Democrats (Gang of 14) to block the Senate Republican’s attempt to confirm conservative, strict constructionist judges; also said Alito was too conservative for his liking
    -WAR ON TERROR: fought with Hillary Clinton to demand that terrorists be given a full American trial
    -GAY MARRIAGE: he joined liberals to fight against a federal marriage amendment supporting the institution of traditional marriage
    -CHRISTIANS: campaigning in 2000, he famously described Christian leaders as “agents of intolerance”
    -PRO-LIFE: he filed an amicus brief against pro-life advocates in Wisconsin
    -BI-PARTISANSHIP: he met with leading Democrats in 2004 to discuss the possibility of being John Kerry’s Vice-President; publicly considered leaving the Republican Party in 2001 after he lost the primary
    -INTELLECT: finished 894 out of 899 in his class in the Naval Academy.
    -PROFESSIONAL ETHICS: ringleader of the infamous Keating 5 ethical scandal which cost US tax payers $160 billion (Google it)
    -PERSONAL ETHICS: McCain cheated on his first wife after she had a severe accident that left her partially disabled. He then divorced her and married his multi-millionaire mistress, whose daddy bought McCain a spot in the Congress

    By Anonymous Dan, at 4/2/08 2:19 AM  

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