An early analysis of the 14 District GOP Primary

From Eric Krol, in today’s Daily Herald:

A Hastert retirement would set up a likely Republican primary pitting Oberweis against Aurora state Sen. Chris Lauzen. The two conservatives would battle it out for their party’s base of support

If that's what the field looks like heading into Februrary, my prediction is that Lauzen wins.

In the 2006 Republican primary, Kane County represented 58% of the total votes in the 14th District. Kendall represented 17%. Obviously those two counties, Kane in particular, are must wins for the nomination. Oberweis' poorest showing in Kane was in 2004 (29%, compared to 56% and 40% in ’02 and ’06, respectively) when the race included a State Senator from Kane (Rauschenberger). I think the same dynamic will play out in ’08, and Lauzen will beat Oberweis in Kane.

In Kendall, Lauzen already has a base (his district includes part of the county), while Oberweis has seen his number go down from 61% in ’02 to 42% and 37% in ’06 and ’04, respectively, even though no “favorite son” was in the picture in the later two cycles. Once again, I predict a Lauzen win in Kendall. Lauzen also won most of the western counties in the district when he ran for Comptroller in '98.

If Oberweis is willing to set his sights lower than Governor and U.S. Senator in order to get elected, maybe he should skip Congress and run for Lauzen's State Senate seat.


Also posted at Illinoize

Jesse Jackson, Jr. is an idiot

There’s really no other way to put it.

Perhaps the esteemed Congressman should sit down and read the Constitution before running to the nearest TV camera and declaring that the President should be impeached for committing “very serious crimes” against it.

Article II, Section 2 very clearly states that the President “shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States.”

It doesn’t take a law degree from the University of Illinois to understand that exercising an explicitly proscribed power is not a crime against the Constitution. So, whether you think “Scooter” should be hung from the nearest yardarm or given a ticker-tape parade, you cannot deny that President Bush was well within his Constitutional authority to commute his sentence.

Unless, of course, you are an idiot.



Also posted at Illinoize